A new report entitled ``Nigerian Unity in the Balance”
authored for the United States Army War College has, again, warned Nigerian
leaders to beware of another civil war or an outright break-up following what
it called ongoing divisive trends in the country.
The report released by the Strategic Studies Institute of
War College was written by two former American servicemen, Gerald McLaughlin
and Clarence J. Bouchat. McLaughlin is a graduate of the U.S. Army War College
while Bouchat is also an adjunct professor at the U.S. Army War College (USAWC)
The report, whose foreword was written by the Director,
Strategic Studies, Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, Professor Douglas
Lovelace, observed that divisive forces were becoming more stronger than
uniting forces in Nigeria, warning that unless this was reversed, Nigeria`s
existence could be jeopardised.
According to the report, “Parochial interests created by
religious, cultural, ethnic, economic, regional, and political secessionist
tendencies are endemic in Nigeria. Under such stresses, Nigerian unity may
fail.
“Should Nigeria’s leaders mismanage the political economy
and reinforce centrifugal forces in Nigeria, the breaks to create autonomous
regions or independent countries would likely occur along its previously
identified fault lines,” the report warned.
“Having already experienced one brutal civil war, Nigeria is
at risk for a recurrence of conflict or dissolution, especially since some of
the underpinning motivations of the war remain unresolved,`` the report
observed, detailing many fault lines speeding up disintegrative tendencies in
the country.
“Indeed, East Timor, Eritrea, Croatia, and Somaliland
indicate that the weakest point of failing states is along colonial borders. Of
more interest for Nigerian unity is that this may also occur between regions
separately administered by a common colonial power, as occurred between
Malaysia and Singapore, and North and South Sudan, where differences proved
irreconcilable after the departure of British administration. At least, some of
the resulting regions and states of a possible Nigerian devolution may divide
along such internal lines”, the report projected.
While conceding that Nigeria’s fate is primarily in the
hands of Nigerians, the report noted that such could be positively affected by
actions of the US, adding that “Nigeria’s future is in balance and the United
States should help tip the scales.”
The report particularly warned that religious differences
were taking the centre-stage in the emerging conflict situation in the country,
disputing repeated reports that economic reasons were to blame for the
insurgency and other conflicts in the country.
The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S.
Army War College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to
national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrategic analysis.
Source: Nigeria Tribune
No comments:
Post a Comment